Model performance

Model Analytics

Validation results for the PulmoLens classifier on a held-out NSCLC test cohort. Expand any metric to see what it means and how to read it clinically.

Dataset utilization

2,910 of 3,000 patient records passed quality control and were used for training and validation.

2,910Records used

97.0%Utilization

582Test set

Performance metrics

Accuracy

95.1%

Overall share of correct predictions.

Precision

95.3%

When it flags elevated risk, how often it's right.

Recall (Sensitivity)

94.2%

Of truly high-risk patients, how many it caught.

F1 Score

94.7%

Balance between precision and recall.

ROC AUC

97.2%

Ability to rank high-risk above low-risk patients.

Specificity

95.8%

Of truly low-risk patients, how many it cleared.

ROC Curve

Sensitivity vs. false-positive rate across all decision thresholds.

AUC = 0.972 (dashed line = random classifier, AUC 0.5)

Confusion Matrix

Test-set outcomes for 582 patients at the deployed threshold.

Pred. elevated

Pred. low

Actual elevated

257True positive

16False negative

Actual low

13False positive

296True negative

Only 16 high-risk patients were missed (false negatives) and 13 low-risk patients were over-flagged (false positives) out of 582.

Feature Impact Analysis

Global permutation importance — how much each input drives model predictions across the cohort.

Screening guideline definitions

USPSTF — U.S. Preventive Services Task Force

An independent, volunteer panel of national experts in disease prevention and evidence-based medicine. Its recommendations are considered the gold standard in the U.S. and largely determine which preventive services insurers must cover. Its 2021 lung cancer guidance recommends annual low-dose CT screening for adults aged 50–80 with a ≥20 pack-year history who currently smoke or quit within the past 15 years.

ACS — American Cancer Society

A nationwide voluntary health organization that issues its own cancer screening guidelines. Its 2023 update recommends annual low-dose CT screening for adults aged 50–80 with a ≥20 pack-year smoking history, regardless of how long ago a former smoker quit — a broader eligibility window than the USPSTF criteria.

A pack-year is one pack of cigarettes per day for one year (e.g., 1 pack/day for 20 years, or 2 packs/day for 10 years, both equal 20 pack-years).